In 1961, astronomer Frank Drake formulated the famous equation intended to estimate how many intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way might be capable of communicating with us. A decade earlier, physicist Enrico Fermi posed the question that became known as the Fermi paradox: if the universe contains so many stars and planets, where are all these civilizations? Why have we still not heard from anyone?

As reported by Space.com, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) has, over the decades, evolved into a complex combination of technology, algorithms, and patience. Yet one of the newest ideas is surprisingly simple: perhaps the issue is not with us or our instruments. Perhaps extraterrestrials simply do not want to communicate with us.

The “Great Silence” as refusal, not absence

In a new paper set to appear in the August issue of Acta Astronautica, Norwegian researcher Erik Geslin from Noroff University College proposes adding a new factor to the Drake equation — the “willingness to communicate.”

He explains that his work reframes the question: even if such civilizations exist, would they actually want to communicate with us? What is commonly referred to as the “Great Silence” may not indicate absence, but rather a deliberate refusal.

According to Geslin, a civilization capable of interstellar travel has likely long passed stages of conquest, overconsumption, and ecological self-destruction. Such societies may be deeply biocentric or ecocentric, prioritizing life and ecosystems over their own interests.

He suggests that advanced extraterrestrial civilizations may not be shy, but rather cautious. If they are biocentric or ecocentric, humanity may currently appear to them as an unsafe partner for contact, leading them to act with extreme prudence.

Why humanity may appear “dangerous”

Geslin proposes that extraterrestrials observing Earth would see not only our radio signals and spacecraft, but the broader picture: wars, environmental crises, instability, and the degradation of our own biosphere. From their perspective, humanity may appear as a species that has not yet demonstrated the ability to live sustainably and peacefully.

He notes that sending friendly messages does not necessarily make a civilization appear friendly from the outside. An advanced society would likely observe for a long time before initiating any form of contact, studying our communications, media, films, games, and social networks to understand who we are.

Even a basic assessment of the condition of our planet and how we treat our biosphere could provide them with sufficient information.

A new factor in the Drake equation

Geslin proposes introducing a “contact-willingness factor” into the Drake equation. This factor depends not only on technological advancement, but also on the ethical, cognitive, and ecological maturity of a civilization — and on how we ourselves appear from their perspective.

He adds that civilizations capable of surviving long enough to achieve interstellar travel likely developed a deep awareness of ecological balance and systemic fragility. If so, they would be highly selective about whom they choose to contact.

Curiosity versus caution

Of course, curiosity is a powerful force. Exploration and the pursuit of the unknown often go hand in hand with technological progress. It is possible that some civilizations may still decide that the potential benefits of contact outweigh the risks.

Geslin acknowledges that exploration inherently involves uncertainty. However, if such civilizations have reached a high level of sustainability, they would likely remain extremely cautious — as expected of a species that has survived its own crises and learned to avoid them.

In brief

A new paper by Erik Geslin suggests that the “Great Silence” may not indicate the absence of civilizations, but rather their deliberate refusal to contact us. Advanced societies may be biocentric and ecocentric, while humanity may currently appear unstable and potentially dangerous.

The researcher proposes adding a “contact-willingness factor” to the Drake equation, based on ethical and ecological maturity. The study will be published in the August issue of Acta Astronautica.