Scientists have found that the landscape at the Apollo 17 landing site was reshaped by seismic activity from ancient moonquakes rather than by meteorite impacts. According to Science Daily, this discovery may force NASA to reconsider where permanent lunar bases should be built.

A study published in Science Advances analyzed data from the Taurus–Littrow Valley, where Apollo 17 astronauts landed in 1972. Thomas R. Watters, senior scientist emeritus at the Smithsonian Institution, and Nicholas Schmerr, a geology professor at the University of Maryland, concluded that moonquakes with magnitudes around 3.0 repeatedly shook the region over the past 90 million years. The tremors came from the Lee–Lincoln fault, a tectonic structure crossing the valley floor that may still be active today.

Short Missions Are Safe, Long-Term Bases Face Greater Risk

While short missions such as Apollo 17 face minimal danger, the researchers estimated that a ten-year lunar habitat located near an active fault would face roughly a 1-in-5500 chance of experiencing a destructive moonquake. Schmerr emphasized, as quoted by Space, that this probability should be treated as a calculated risk: even though the likelihood of a catastrophic event is small, it is not zero, meaning it cannot be ignored when planning long-term infrastructure on the lunar surface.

The findings carry particular significance for NASA’s Artemis program, which aims to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon. Taller landing systems — including SpaceX’s Starship Human Landing System planned for future Artemis missions — may be more vulnerable to ground acceleration caused by nearby moonquakes. Artemis III, scheduled for mid-2027, is expected to be the first crewed landing near the lunar south pole, where NASA has identified nine potential sites.

Paleoseismology Guides Future Outpost Planning

The researchers reached their conclusions by studying the paths of boulders and evidence of landslides documented by Apollo 17 astronauts, which served as indicators of ancient seismic activity, according to Mirage News. Schmerr explained that because the Moon lacks the strong-motion sensors used on Earth, the team had to rely on geological clues to infer the level of ground shaking that might have occurred in the past.

Their core recommendation is straightforward: construction should avoid areas close to cliffs or recently active faults. Watters noted that the global distribution of young thrust faults such as the Lee–Lincoln fault, their potential to remain active, and the possibility that new thrust faults may form due to ongoing compression should be factored into site selection and stability assessments for permanent lunar outposts. Future Artemis missions will deploy modern seismometers on the lunar surface to refine these risk estimates.