Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered by astronomers in December 2023, may approach Earth in 2032. Some calculations allow for the possibility of its collision with our planet, but scientists cannot yet give a definitive forecast.

What consequences are possible?

Senior researcher at the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergey Naroenkov believes that if the asteroid falls into the ocean, it could cause large waves and tsunamis. However, the consequences of the collision depend on many factors: the size, composition and angle of incidence of the celestial body, as well as the location of its possible impact.

There is no direct threat to humanity yet, since the probability of a collision is currently estimated at only 1%.

How will the trajectory of the asteroid change?

According to Naroenkov, the situation may change:

  • The probability of a collision may decrease to 0%, and the asteroid will be excluded from the list of potentially dangerous objects.
  • It may pass at a distance of 35-40 thousand kilometers from Earth, posing no threat.

Other estimates, such as those by Stanislav Korotky, scientific director of the Ka-Dar observatory, suggest a collision probability of 0.5 to 6%. He explains that the uncertainty is due to the short period of observation of the asteroid and the difficulty of making accurate predictions for such a long period of time.

How are scientists monitoring the situation?

Astronomers continue to study the trajectory of 2024 YR4, using new data and updated calculations. The collision probability may be revised in the coming years.

At the moment, there are no serious reasons for concern, but experts continue monitoring in order to adjust possible protective measures if necessary.