Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered late last year, may collide with Earth on December 22, 2032. This was reported by astronomer Stanislav Korotkiy.

What is known about asteroid 2024 YR4?

The asteroid was discovered on December 27, 2024, by astronomers from the ATLAS observatory in Chile. According to preliminary estimates, its diameter is about 70 meters - this is three to four times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite, the explosion of which in 2013 caused destruction and massive damage to buildings.

The asteroid has already been observed for 33 days, but due to the short observation period, forecasts remain uncertain.

What is the probability of a collision?

According to Korotkiy, estimates of the probability of a fall vary:

  • According to various calculations, the chance of a collision is from 0.5% to 6%.
  • 6% means that out of 16 possible scenarios, one leads to a collision.

This is the highest probability of an asteroid colliding with Earth since the discovery of Apophis in 2004. Recall that Apophis will fly by just 30,000 km from Earth in April 2029, but a collision with it is not expected.

Where could the asteroid fall?

If the forecast is confirmed, the most likely places for the impact of 2024 YR4 are Central Africa or the Atlantic Ocean. In the event of a landfall, destruction of buildings is possible within a radius of up to 30 km.

What next?

Astronomers will continue to track the trajectory of the asteroid, and new data will help refine the forecast. At the moment, the risk of a collision remains small, but the situation requires further monitoring.