Solar activity in February 2026 has not yet matched January’s record level of geomagnetic storms, but it is not giving scientists much reason to relax either. The Laboratory of Solar Astronomy at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Space Research Institute (IKI RAS) has reported the formation of a new coronal hole that could begin affecting Earth’s geomagnetic environment within a few days.

Formation and Near-Term Outlook

The outline of the new coronal hole has largely taken shape, and its structure is clearly visible in images of the solar corona. For now, however, geomagnetic conditions remain calm: only brief, weak disturbances have been recorded over the past day, and solar wind speeds have risen only slightly.

According to IKI RAS specialists, the coronal hole’s impact on Earth is expected to begin in about three to four days—the time it typically takes for high-speed streams of solar plasma to reach our planet. Scientists forecast that the Sun will remain exceptionally quiet through the end of the week, with no major surges in activity anticipated.

Overall, February appears much calmer than January, when a record number of geomagnetic storm days was registered—10 in total, the highest figure since September 2017. That month was marked by intense solar activity, including radiation storms and powerful coronal mass ejections.

A Fresh M-Class Flare

While the coronal hole is only preparing to make its presence felt, the Sun has already produced another flare. On February 12 at 05:40 Moscow time, an M1.4-class flare lasting 21 minutes occurred in sunspot group 4367 (coordinates N11W88), according to the Institute of Applied Geophysics.

This was far from an isolated event. The previous day, February 11, four strong flares were recorded in active region 4366. That same region recently set a 21st-century record for the number of M- and X-class flares originating from a single active center—66 events, two more than the previous maximum.

M-class flares are the second most powerful category, just below the top-tier X-class. They are often accompanied by coronal mass ejections that can trigger geomagnetic storms if they reach Earth’s magnetosphere. The X-ray classification follows a logarithmic scale, with each successive letter representing a tenfold increase in energy, from the weakest A-class to X-class.

What to Expect from the Coronal Hole

Coronal holes are regions on the Sun with open magnetic field lines where plasma accelerates, producing fast solar wind. When such a hole rotates toward Earth, it can cause moderate geomagnetic disturbances—typically at G1–G2 levels—sometimes bringing auroras to high latitudes and minor disruptions to radio communications. Severe G4–G5 storms are unlikely from a single coronal hole unless it is accompanied by powerful coronal mass ejections.

For now, February remains relatively calm, but the new coronal hole is a reminder to monitor updates from IKI RAS and other observatories. Solar Cycle 25 is still on the rise, and unexpected bursts of activity remain possible at any time.

In Brief

A newly formed coronal hole on the Sun could begin affecting Earth within three to four days, IKI RAS specialists report. Geomagnetic conditions are currently stable, and February appears quiet compared with January’s turbulent activity. On February 12, an M1.4 flare lasting 21 minutes erupted in sunspot group 4367, while region 4366 recently set a record for the number of powerful flares in the 21st century. Moderate disturbances are expected, but no severe storms are anticipated for now.