In the third quarter, global PC shipments reached 68.5 million units. Although this represents a 7.2% year-on-year decline, analysts at IDC are confident that the PC market will rebound next year, growing by 3.4% to reach 260 million units, propelled by the rebound from the low base formed in the current year.

According to IDC representatives, the PC market contracted by 13.8% in 2023 compared to 2022, and a year earlier, PC shipments also decreased by 16.6%. This prolonged and significant decline, by the standards of this segment, should create conditions for a recovery in demand in 2024.

Firstly, this will be facilitated by the presence of a sufficiently extensive fleet of personal computers over four years old that may require upgrading. Additionally, next year, users will be compelled to migrate to Windows 11 due to the end of the lifecycle of Microsoft's previous operating platform.

Secondly, in 2024, a sufficient number of central processors with AI acceleration capabilities will enter the market. Corporate clients will be the first to benefit from their use, but the application of such processors will gradually expand. Analysts believe that after 2024, the PC market can return to levels characteristic of the period before the pandemic, with sales volumes reaching 285 million units by 2027.

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Experts note that until the current quarter, the PC market has been contracting for eight consecutive quarters, and even the emerging signs of recovery do not suggest that the market will reach the level of the second quarter of 2012 in the near future. On the other hand, the laptop segment has already exceeded sales volumes from 2019. In the future, the growth of the PC market will be supported by a focus on hybrid forms of employment, computer park upgrades, and increased interest in more expensive configurations. All of this will help maintain an average annual growth rate of 3.1% from 2023 to 2027.

During this period, it is expected that the growth rates of PC sales volumes in the consumer sector will reach 2.4% per year, in the educational sector, they will reach 4.2% per year, and in the commercial sector, they will be limited to 3.6% per year.

In terms of software platforms, PCs running Apple macOS may increase sales volumes by 20% next year, but by 2027, the sales dynamics will reach the industry average. In the segment of systems running Google Chrome OS, stagnation is expected until 2026. Systems running Microsoft Windows will reach a local peak in growth rates in 2025, and the next surge in interest in them is expected in 2027.