TrendForce analysts have published a worrying forecast: the shortage of RAM and storage, driven by the AI boom, will hit the most mass-market category — smartphones priced under $300. Component inventories have already fallen from the usual eight weeks to just three or four, and once they are depleted, finished device prices are expected to rise inevitably.

Memory Prices Are Soaring

China’s Coosea Group has provided specific numbers:
• 4 GB LPDDR4X chips have increased in price from $7 to $30 since early 2025.
• eMMC storage has jumped from $3.2 to $8.

This is still not the ceiling: contract prices for DRAM and NAND rose by 30–50% in Q4, and growth will continue into the first half of 2026. The main cause is that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have redirected up to 80% of their production capacity toward HBM memory for NVIDIA and AMD AI accelerators.

Budget Phone Configurations Are Shrinking

Manufacturers are already responding:
• configurations of 8/256 GB are being replaced more often by 6/128 GB;
• 12/512 GB versions are disappearing from the mid-range and lower segments;
• LPDDR4X, despite being slower, has effectively become the new “poverty standard” because it is three to four times cheaper than LPDDR5X and will remain in production for at least another three years.

Samsung and SK Hynix are officially discontinuing DDR4 production in 2026 — after that, even the simplest models using older memory will become noticeably more expensive.

How Much Smartphones Will Increase in Price

TrendForce predicts that retail prices of budget smartphones (under $300) will rise by about 10–20% compared with pre-crisis levels. Example shifts:
• a $200 phone may cost $220–240;
• a $250 model may rise to $280–300.

The most affordable Redmi, Poco, Realme, and Tecno phones are expected to easily exceed the “psychological” threshold of $450–460.

In Brief

The 2025–2026 memory crisis will hit the budget segment hardest: chip inventories are shrinking, LPDDR4X is already four times more expensive than a year ago, and manufacturers are cutting RAM and storage in low-cost models. In 2026, smartphones under $300 will increase in price by at least 10–20%, and entry-level configurations will become even more modest. If you are planning a purchase, the safest time to do it is before spring, while old-stock components are still available.