Anthropic aims to raise up to $62.5 billion in one of the largest IPOs in US history. At the top end of the proposed price range, the company's market value could exceed $1 trillion, and, including all potentially issuable shares, approach $1.4 trillion. But the significance of this offering extends far beyond the fate of a single company: it could reveal how strongly investors still believe in the economic prospects of artificial intelligence.

Anthropic is going public at a challenging time for the technology sector. Shares of Nvidia, the main beneficiary of the AI infrastructure boom, have fallen sharply, while investors' confidence that current company valuations are justified is under pressure. Against this backdrop, Anthropic has an opportunity not only to raise a record amount of capital but also to restore market optimism. To do so, however, it will have to convince investors that a trillion-dollar valuation is not just another bet on future promises.

How the trillion-dollar valuation adds up

On Tuesday, Anthropic announced the terms of its upcoming offering. The company plans to sell approximately 801.4 million Class A shares at a price of $70 to $78 each. At the top end of that range, it would raise up to $62.5 billion.

However, proceeds raised and market capitalization are different measures. Anthropic has several classes of shares, and the IPO underwriters will be able to purchase additional shares if the offering is successful. If that option is exercised, the company's total share count will reach approximately 13.09 billion. Under the announced terms, this corresponds to a market capitalization of around $1.03 trillion.

There is another layer to the valuation as well. Anthropic has issued a large number of stock options that could be exercised in the future, increasing the total share count. Including all potentially issuable shares, the company's so-called fully diluted valuation at the top end of the price range would be around $1.4 trillion.

This is below the expectations discussed earlier. There had previously been market speculation that Anthropic might target a fully diluted valuation of $2 trillion. Nevertheless, even the current terms mean the company is seeking a place among the world's most valuable technology businesses.

The scale of the offering is truly exceptional. For comparison, SpaceX raised $75 billion in its IPO earlier this year, setting a US market record. Anthropic is currently targeting a smaller amount, but its public debut will still rank among the largest offerings in history.

Why the market needs Anthropic so badly right now

In recent months, Nvidia has been perhaps the leading symbol of the investment boom surrounding artificial intelligence. The company supplies the accelerators and computing infrastructure on which much of today's AI industry is built. Its CEO, Jensen Huang, has become one of the most influential public advocates of the technology boom—and something of a reassuring voice for investors.

Whenever the market began to doubt AI's prospects, Huang regularly stepped in to reassure market participants and remind them of the scale of demand for computing power.

But now Nvidia itself has become a source of concern. Since October 9, its shares have lost 27% of their value. On that day, The New York Times first reported on Huang's alleged connection to a woman suspected of spying for China. The story called into question not only the executive's reputation but also the security of his position at the company.

This is particularly sensitive for the market: Nvidia is not merely a major technology business but effectively the stock market's symbol of the entire AI economy. Its shares allow investors to bet on the industry's growth without choosing among dozens of model developers and startups. When that symbol becomes unstable, doubts can spread across the entire sector.

Anthropic can offer the market a different story. While Nvidia embodies AI's physical infrastructure—chips, servers, and data centers—Anthropic is closer to what most people directly perceive as artificial intelligence: models, chatbots, and tools that are changing work and everyday life.

The impact of its products is easier for ordinary users to understand than that of complex semiconductor technologies. This could help the company attract attention not only from professional investors but also from a broader public that has recently become increasingly wary of AI's development.

The IPO will test the entire AI industry

The success of the offering matters far beyond Anthropic itself. Former senior Bank of America banker Craig Coben told The New York Times that a successful IPO for the company could be necessary to validate the valuations of other businesses in the artificial intelligence ecosystem.

The logic is clear: private AI companies have already secured enormous valuations, but the public market places different demands on them. Investors must do more than believe in the technology's potential; they must decide how much they are willing to pay for shares, taking into account risks, revenue prospects, and future competition.

If Anthropic manages to go public at a valuation of around a trillion dollars and sustain buyer interest once trading begins, it will send a strong signal to the entire sector. The offering would show that investors are willing to commit large sums to AI developers even amid market volatility.

But the opposite scenario is also possible. If demand proves weak and the shares fall quickly after trading begins, it will call into question not only Anthropic's valuation but also broader expectations about the value of AI companies. That would be especially true if investors turn out to be willing to participate in the offering only at a substantial discount.

That is why a valuation that is relatively modest compared with earlier expectations could prove an advantage. If the offering price leaves room for gains after the public debut, the shares will have a better chance of a successful start. An excessively high starting point, by contrast, could turn the IPO into a stress test even before the company begins trading.

There is another important aspect: after the offering, Anthropic will become a public company, meaning its financial results and market value will directly affect American investors, including those who participate in the stock market through 401(k) retirement plans. For them, AI will no longer be solely a story about the technological future—it will become part of their personal investment portfolios.

Dario Amodei will become one of AI's leading public faces

The IPO will also change the position of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Once the company goes public, he is likely to become one of the most prominent figures in the entire artificial intelligence industry.

In this respect, his public image differs markedly from Jensen Huang's. Amodei speaks confidently about AI's ability to transform the economy and society, but at the same time regularly warns about the risks the technology's development could pose to humanity.

This stance could prove both an advantage and a problem. On the one hand, amid growing public distrust of AI, openly discussing the dangers could strengthen trust in the company. On the other, warnings about potential threats could heighten anxiety surrounding the industry and raise questions about how much control developers themselves have over the systems they are creating.

Such rhetoric has already drawn criticism from other technology executives, including Huang. Now the difference in their approaches could become part of a broader public contest over how artificial intelligence should be perceived and who will shape the industry's future.

Anthropic's success is not guaranteed

The stakes surrounding the IPO are especially high because of current market conditions. According to Axios, over the past month Nvidia has lost more in market value than the valuation Anthropic hopes to achieve in its offering. This vividly illustrates the scale of the turmoil, but it does not mean that one company can offset the losses of an entire industry.

Anthropic is going public with a strong technology brand and an opportunity to become a new focal point for investors. However, a trillion-dollar market capitalization does not in itself prove that the business can live up to expectations. The public market will assess not only the quality of its models but also the company's ability to turn technological leadership into sustainable financial results.

The upcoming offering is therefore both an opportunity and a test. If Anthropic's shares perform well in their initial trading sessions, it could restore confidence in the prospects of AI companies and support the entire technology sector. If the market rejects the proposed valuation, however, it will become clear that even one of the most prominent artificial intelligence developers is not immune to a reassessment of expectations.

Ultimately, Anthropic will have to prove more than simply that investors are willing to pay a trillion dollars for the future of AI. It needs to show that this future can generate profits on a scale that justifies such a price.