What major magnetic storms await us in 2024?

As part of its current 11-year cycle, the Sun will reach its peak activity this year. According to scientists, this could lead to magnetic storms several times a month.

“We expect that 2024 will already be the year of maximum solar activity. This means large flares, large magnetic storms, so, in general, if we compare 2024 with 2023, according to any forecasts, it will be more active. Both in terms of flare activity and in terms of geomagnetic activity,” said Sergei Bogachev, head of the solar astronomy laboratory at the Space Research Institute (IKI) and the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview with RIA Novosti.

He recalled that it is impossible to accurately predict solar flares and magnetic storms; we can only talk about general trends in the geomagnetic situation expected in 2024. According to the forecasts of some scientists, stronger flares are expected on the Sun in the coming year than in 2023.

Maximum solar activity and magnetic storms on Earth are expected in May-June, and by the end of the year the activity may decline.

“Some geomagnetic disturbances will just happen weekly. In general, noticeable storms, I think, will occur monthly, I think 2-3 storms per month,” the specialist noted.

True, some American scientists believe that 2024 will be relatively “calm”, and maximum solar activity will occur in 2025.

Let us recall that the most powerful magnetic storms on Earth were last recorded in 2005. On the other hand, it is necessary to take into account that large solar flares are not always followed by strong storms.

We also note that a powerful solar flare occurred on the night of January 1, 2024 - it was assigned a score of X5.0 (C - weak flares, M - moderate, X - strong, and the number after the letter also indicates the power of the flare), which is almost twice as large as the X2.8 flare that previously occupied first place (occurred on December 14, 2023). An even larger event, namely an X8.2 flare, occurred on September 10, 2017.