Morgan Stanley nearly doubles China humanoid robot forecast

Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 shipment forecast for humanoid robots in China for the second time this year. The bank now expects deliveries of 50,000 units, nearly doubling its previous estimate of 28,000. This revision reflects the accelerated commercial adoption of robots in Chinese factories, logistics centers, and retail outlets. By 2030, the bank expects the market to grow to $15 billion, with annual shipments reaching 446,000 units, CNBC reports.

A Rapid Series of Forecast Revisions

The bank initially projected shipments of 14,000 Chinese humanoid robots for 2026, but doubled that estimate to 28,000 in January. Tuesday’s revision—now up to 50,000 units—represents a more than threefold increase from the original figure in less than six months. Morgan Stanley expects China's humanoid robotics market to reach $2 billion this year, driven largely by Beijing's decision to elevate "embodied AI" to a national strategic priority for the next five years, along with land and office space subsidies for domestic manufacturers.

China's Uncontested Leadership

The revised forecast highlights China's dominant position in this nascent industry. According to Barclays and Morgan Stanley, Chinese companies accounted for about 85–90% of global humanoid robot shipments in 2025. Out of more than 13,000 humanoid robots shipped worldwide last year, AgiBot led the market with approximately 5,100 units, followed by Unitree with over 4,200 units. US competitors—Tesla, Figure AI, and Agility Robotics—shipped around 150 units each.

A significant portion of China's 2025 orders, valued at over 2 billion yuan ($295 million), came from state-owned enterprises for use in power plants, data centers, and entertainment venues, Morgan Stanley reports.

The Path to Mass Adoption

The overall market trajectory remains remarkably steep. Barclays estimates the current global humanoid robotics market to be worth between $2 billion and $3 billion, but projects it could reach $200 billion by 2035. Morgan Stanley's long-term forecast envisions a $5 trillion global market by 2050, with more than one billion humanoids in operation.

Currently, commercial application is heavily focused on repetitive industrial tasks. Barclays expects a second wave after 2030 to propel robots into healthcare, elderly care, and education. The key question for the coming decade remains whether Chinese companies can maintain their market dominance as American and other international players scale up production.

In Brief

Morgan Stanley has nearly doubled its 2026 shipment forecast for humanoid robots in China to 50,000 units. The upward revision is driven by the accelerated adoption of robotics in industry and strong government support. China already controls up to 90% of global shipments, and long-term forecasts project humanoid robotics to become a multi-trillion-dollar market.