Last week, U.S. stock markets posted significant gains amid optimism surrounding U.S.–Iran negotiations. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 rose by about 3.36%, the Nasdaq gained 4.44%, and the Dow Jones increased by 2.96%. Despite the growth, investors remained cautious due to the fragility of the ceasefire and inflation risks driven by energy prices.

Against the backdrop of expectations for possible peace in the Middle East, European stock markets also recorded gains last week. On a weekly basis, the STOXX 600 index rose by about 3%, marking its third consecutive weekly increase. The main growth drivers were the financial and technology sectors, while the defense sector declined amid expectations of easing geopolitical tensions.

Last week also saw significant inflows into global equity funds. On a weekly basis, investors allocated about $23.47 billion to equity funds, nearly double the amount recorded the previous week. Inflows into U.S. funds totaled $9.76 billion, European funds received $9.1 billion, and Asian funds attracted about $2 billion. At the sector level, the largest investments were directed to technology ($3.88 billion), industrial ($1.36 billion), and utilities ($530 million) sectors. At the same time, bond funds recorded inflows of $13.87 billion, while money market funds attracted approximately $72.05 billion.

U.S.–Iran negotiations and expectations of a stable ceasefire also affected oil prices. On a weekly basis, Brent crude prices fell by about 12.7%, reaching approximately $95.20 per barrel — the largest weekly decline since 2022.

In the U.S. technology market, the decline in the software sector continues. The S&P 500 Software and Services index has fallen by about 25.5% since the beginning of the year, including a drop of around 2.6% on the most recent day. The decline is driven by concerns that new artificial intelligence models could replace traditional software solutions and reduce the sector’s long-term growth potential. In particular, a new powerful model introduced by Anthropic has intensified these concerns, highlighting both the rapid pace of technological progress and the vulnerabilities of existing software systems.

Among companies with a market capitalization of at least $10 billion, the largest gain last week was recorded by car rental services provider Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR). The company’s shares rose by 41.08% over the week (price per share: $299.94). It was followed by optical communications equipment manufacturer Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI), which gained 40.16% ($150.60). Rounding out the top three was Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS), operating in cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence solutions, with a gain of 28.82% ($144.97).

Among large-cap companies that recorded the biggest losses last week, the list was led by content delivery network and cybersecurity provider Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM), whose shares fell by 16.66% over the week ($91.35). It was followed by Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), a developer of credit scoring and analytics software, which declined by 13.99% ($922.37). The third position was taken by cloud services and internet security provider Cloudflare, Inc. (NET), with a decline of 13.50% ($166.99).

Consumer confidence in the United States reached a historic low at the beginning of April. According to data from the University of Michigan, the consumer confidence index dropped to 47.6 compared to 53.3 in March. At the same time, inflation expectations among consumers rose sharply: expected inflation for the next 12 months increased to 4.8% (up from 3.8%), while long-term expectations rose to 3.4%. The deterioration was driven by rising oil prices due to the war in the Middle East (more than 30%) and higher gasoline prices, which negatively affected household financial expectations.

The U.S. labor market remained relatively stable last week despite geopolitical risks. The number of new unemployment benefit claims increased by 16,000 to reach 219,000, indicating that a sharp rise in layoffs has not yet been observed. At the same time, inflationary pressures continue to strengthen: in February, the household consumption expenditure index increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, while inflation for March is expected to be higher — around 1%. Rising energy prices and the effects of the war continue to keep inflation risks elevated.

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