The US labor market is showing signs of cooling, although it is still relatively strong. In October, there were 1.11 vacancies per unemployed person, which is slightly more than the September figure, but significantly lower than the maximum figure of 2022, when there were more than 2 vacancies per unemployed person. In October, the number of vacant jobs in the US was 7.744 million. A greater number of people left their workplaces, which is a sign of confidence in the labor market. The number of voluntary layoffs rose by 228,000, the highest since May. Economists predict that labor force growth will resume in November and the number of new jobs will increase by 200,000.

The Dow Jones fell 0.17% on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, rising 0.05% and 0.40%, respectively. This increase is mainly due to the increase in shares of technology companies. Investors also responded positively to the announcements made by US Federal Reserve officials that the labor market is stable and that the rate of inflation will decrease to the 2% target rate. After the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections, the S&P 500 increased by 5.7%. The index registered a total increase of 27% during this year.

Wells Fargo analyst Christopher Harvey and his team have released a forecast according to which the S&P 500 index may reach 7,007 by the end of 2025, which implies an increase of more than 26% compared to the current level. This is the highest growth forecast that Wall Street analysts have made so far. Harvey believes the Trump administration's policies, combined with the Federal Reserve's refinancing rate-cutting cycle, will create a favorable environment for stocks. He also predicts rising corporate profit margins, a faster-than-expected expansion of the US economy, and a possible increase in mergers and acquisitions in late 2025.

US manufacturing contracted slightly in November, but there are already signs of improvement, with the manufacturing PMI reaching 48.4, the highest in five months. Orders rose for the first time in eight months, while manufacturing materials prices fell. Only a few industrial sectors, such as electronics and home appliances, have increased, while others, such as transportation equipment and chemical production, have dropped. Concerns remain in some sectors. For example, in the transportation equipment sector, there is concern that business will slow by 2025 due to high tariffs on imports from China and continued inflation.

US consumer spending rose 0.4% in October, slightly beating expectations, suggesting the economy maintained its steady pace of growth at the start of the fourth quarter, but progress toward reducing inflation has appeared to have stalled in recent months.

On the one hand, sustained inflation, on the other hand, the Trump administration's plans to increase tariffs on imported goods, may limit the possibility of the US Central Bank reducing the refinancing rate next year. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the refinancing rate again in December, although some officials have different view on the pace of further cuts.

The US economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, which is due to the high indicator of consumer spending. For the year, consumer spending increased by 3.5%, which is slightly lower than the initial estimate of 3.7%. Overall, the US economy grew faster than the Federal Reserve's non-inflationary growth target of about 1.8%.

US Federal Reserve officials said they still believe inflation is moving toward their 2% target and have hinted that further rate cuts are possible, though they have not confirmed any concrete steps at the next meeting, which will take place in two days. The Federal Reserve is extremely cautious about forecasts, as Trump's promises to raise import tariffs, cut taxes, and tighten immigration policies could change the economic picture in the coming months. Officials are also awaiting upcoming reports on labor market and inflation dynamics. Markets predict with a 70% probability that the refinancing rate will be reduced in December, reaching the range of 4.25%-4.50%.

Intel announced on Monday that Pat Gelsinger stepped down as CEO. About a month ago, S&P Global announced that Nvidia ( NVDA ) would replace Intel ( INTC ) on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and this underscored Nvidia's dominance in the semiconductor industry. This is a significant setback for Intel, which has been in the Dow Jones for 25 years. Founded in 1968, Intel has been a leader in semiconductor technology for decades, but over the years the company has lost ground. According to analysts, it made more than one misstep, such as passing up the opportunity to develop a chip for Apple's iPhone and abandoning the opportunity to invest in OpenAI. In 2021, Pat Gelsinger was appointed as Intel's CEO in the hope that he would restore the company's position, but it did not work out for him. Intel's stock price has fallen by almost 55% this year.