US consumer confidence in September recorded the biggest decline in the last three years. The consumer confidence index fell to 98.7, while it was 105.6 in August. This comes amid growing fears about the labor market. Currently, the unemployment rate in the USA is 4.2%.

The survey published by the American Conference Board analytical center also showed that consumers predict an increase in inflation for the next year, which reduces their optimism about the economy ahead of the November 5 presidential election. It is believed that the economy itself can decide the outcome of the elections. 

Still, according to the survey, the number of households planning to buy a home in the next six months has increased, and consumers are not giving up travel, dining out and going to the movies, which could help sustain consumer spending and economic growth.

In July, the prices of private houses in the USA increased by 0.1%. Despite this, the trend of slowing down in the real estate market persists. In July of this year, compared to July of last year, private house prices increased by 4.5 percent, which is the smallest increase recorded since July 2023. 

Economists explain the slowdown of inflation in the real estate market with the increase in supply and the reduction of mortgage interest rates that fell to a 1/2 year low. Moreover, they may continue to decline after the Federal Reserve cut the refinancing rate by half a percentage point at once to a range of 4.75%-5.00% last week.

Business activity in the US was stable in September. S&P Global reported on Monday that its manufacturing and services PMI was little changed in September to 54.4 from 54.6 in August. An index above 50 indicates expansion of the private sector. However, the average prices of goods and services increased at the fastest rate in the last six months, which means that inflation may increase in the coming months.

In November and December, the US refinancing rate will be reduced by 0.25% points, reaching 4.25-4.5%. The overwhelming majority of economists who participated in the Reuters survey expressed this opinion.

According to economists, during the next year, the Federal Reserve System will reduce the interest rate by another 1 percentage point, bringing it to a neutral level of 3.25-3.5% by the end of the year.

After the significant reduction of the refinancing rate in the USA, the probability that the European Central Bank will continue easing its monetary policy in October has increased. The ECB has already reduced the refinancing rate twice, in June and at the beginning of September. Many in the bank have hinted that there will be sustained quarterly interest rate cuts in the near future to ensure long-term inflation containment. Inflation in the Eurozone, which is currently 2.2%, may reach 2.5% by the end of the year. Economists assume that the ECB will cut six times by 25 basis points before reaching a neutral interest rate level of 2.0% or 2.25%.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at record highs on Tuesday despite weak consumer confidence. The S&P 500 rose by 0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.20%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.56%. This was helped by a rise in the share prices of Chinese mining companies, after China's central bank announced the launch of the largest state stimulus package since the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the forecast of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2024. the same increase is predicted for the next year as well. Earlier, the organization predicted 3.1% growth for 2024.

According to the organization, the growth of the global economy is in the phase of stabilization, as the impact of the increase in refinancing rates fades, and the decrease in inflation has increased household incomes.

Shares of Tesla ( TSLA ) rose nearly 5% to $250.00 on Monday. On the same day, Barclays announced that the electric car maker has a good chance of better-than-expected car deliveries in the third quarter. This is explained by the improvement of macroeconomic conditions and the recovery of demand for electric cars in Tesla's second largest market, China.

NVIDIA owner Jensen Huang has completed selling a total of $700 million of his shares in the company, in line with his previously announced plan to sell 6 million shares by the end of 2025. In the latest round of sales, Huang sold 120,000 shares worth $14.3 million. On the back of this news, NVIDIA's stock price rose 4 percent on Tuesday.

On September 24, Intel introduced two new chips with artificial intelligence. The Xeon 6 processor and Gaudi 3 AI accelerator promise improved performance and energy efficiency. In this way, Intel is trying to prove that it can be a major player in the field of artificial intelligence, as well as steal the market from its main competitors AMD and Nvidia.

Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported that Qualcomm is considering the possibility of acquiring Intel in order to boost its own chip business. At the same time, Bloomberg reported that Apollo Global Management intends to make a multibillion-dollar investment in Intel, supporting a major plan for a complete transformation of the company announced by the company's CEO, Pat Gelsinger.


Are you interested in investing? Discover their opportunities with Apricot Capital.

Apricot Capital is controlled by the Central Bank of RA.