How the conflict with Iran is affecting bitcoin’s price

Market attention has shifted back to the Middle East: will the conflict with Iran remain localized or escalate further? Bitcoin traders are weighing the impact of rising oil and gold prices, trying to understand how geopolitics could affect “digital gold,” according to decrypt.co.

Data from CoinGecko as of the morning of March 2, 2026, shows Bitcoin trading around $66,600 — down just 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Over the weekend, the price briefly dropped to $63,000 but quickly recovered. On the weekly timeframe, BTC is down about 2.8%, yet it is holding up significantly better than U.S. stock index futures, which at one point fell more than 1%.

Why Bitcoin Has Held Up Better Than Stocks

“Bitcoin reacted almost by the textbook: markets hate uncertainty more than bad news. Once it became clear that the conflict with Iran remained under control, reflexive demand returned very quickly,” said Ryan McMillin, Chief Investment Officer at Merkle Tree Capital.

Bitcoin futures funding rates dropped sharply into negative territory (down to -6%), indicating heavy short positioning. According to McMillin, this creates a mechanically favorable setup for long positions: “The market is paying you to be long — it’s the perfect time to enter.”

Pratik Kala, Head of Research at Apollo Crypto, added: “If Bitcoin was going to crash because of the conflict, it would have already done so. The weekend news flow was very positive, CME futures opened — and if there was going to be a dump, it would have happened.”

Oil, Gold, and Inflation: Pressure on Risk Assets

The market’s main focus right now is the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. After U.S. strikes on Iranian facilities and retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran, oil prices surged sharply: Brent jumped 8–10% to $80 per barrel, while WTI rose 7–8%.

Gold, the classic safe-haven asset, gained more than 2%, reaching $5,388 per troy ounce.

“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East will continue to support gold, triggering spikes in safe-haven demand,” said Han Tan, Chief Analyst at Bybit Learn.

“But experienced market participants know that geopolitical risk premiums often fade quickly once the threat appears contained,” he added.

Higher oil prices could fuel inflation — typically negative for risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, Kala considers this scenario unlikely as a base case: “OPEC can fill supply gaps, and Donald Trump will do everything possible to keep prices down — he understands that rising gasoline costs hit American consumer sentiment the hardest.”

What’s Happening with ETFs and On-Chain Data

Despite geopolitical noise, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $506 million in inflows on February 26 — the largest in nearly three weeks. On-chain data shows easing selling pressure, while Bitcoin’s rally on Thursday (to $68,300) continued alongside gains in tech stocks following earnings from NVIDIA.

In Brief

Bitcoin has remained resilient amid rising tensions around Iran: the weekly decline is limited to 2.8%, with the price hovering near $66,600. The conflict currently appears localized, oil and gold are rising, but the market believes the worst may already be priced in. Negative futures funding (-6%) and $506 million in ETF inflows suggest crowded shorts and returning demand. If escalation remains contained, Bitcoin could continue recovering alongside other risk assets.