Famous American entrepreneur and billionaire Elon Musk believes that artificial intelligence (AI) will surpass the collective intelligence of all humans by 2030. He shared this view on his X (formerly Twitter) page.
According to Musk, significant steps toward this event will occur much sooner. He noted that AI could surpass the intelligence of an individual by 2025 and approach the combined intelligence of humanity by 2027 or 2028.
"Probability that AI exceeds the intelligence of all humans combined by 2030 is ~100%," Musk stated.
However, this opinion is not shared by everyone. Scientist and IT journalist Gary Marcus believes that AI may not live up to expectations. In his column for Wired, he expressed doubts about the real usefulness of AI, noting that the hype surrounding the technology is gradually fading.
According to Marcus, the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI in 2022 created a real sensation, prompting society to actively discuss AI’s possibilities. However, while 2023 was a year of intense interest, 2024 has become a year of disappointments.
Marcus speculated that generative AI might turn out to be less significant than previously thought. One reason he cited was the unfulfilled expectations regarding the profitability of such technologies. For example, OpenAI's losses in 2024 could reach $5 billion, which, according to Marcus, is due to excessive expectations from both businesses and users.
Additionally, the journalist emphasized that since 2022, no major tech company has been able to create anything more innovative than ChatGPT and its analogs. He pointed out that most modern AI models operate on similar algorithms and do not offer fundamentally new solutions.
Marcus also warned that if OpenAI does not make significant progress in AI development by 2025, public interest in this technology may gradually diminish.
It is worth recalling that earlier, in March, Musk, along with other tech leaders, including Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and Pinterest co-founder Evan Sharp, signed an open letter published on the Future of Life website. In the letter, they called for a halt to the development of powerful AI systems to reduce potential risks to society.
Despite his concerns, in July 2023, Musk announced the creation of his own company, xAI, working on "the most powerful AI training cluster." The system is expected to begin operating in the fall of 2025 and will be an important step in AI technology development.
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