Analytics firm TrendForce has sharply raised its expectations for the memory market in the first quarter of 2026. According to the updated forecast, prices for DRAM and NAND will increase more than ever before on record. PC RAM is expected to see the steepest rise.

The sharpest spike in history

TrendForce estimates that contract prices for PC DRAM could climb by 105–110% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter — an unprecedented figure.

In the server and mobile segments, prices are projected to rise by 88–93%. Enterprise SSDs are expected to increase by 53–58%, while the average price growth for flash memory across the market will be about 60%.

These numbers suggest that many computers, laptops, and smartphones will become noticeably more expensive in the coming months — especially models with large amounts of RAM and SSD storage.

Why this is happening now

The main reason is a sudden surge in demand at the end of 2025. OEM manufacturers shipped record volumes of hardware ahead of the holiday season and in early January. As a result, inventories of DRAM and NAND among major players were depleted much faster than anticipated.

Amid the acute shortage, chipmakers such as Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron gained the ability to raise prices without risking order losses. Demand remains high while supply is limited — a classic seller’s market.

TrendForce warns that if the shortage persists, the forecast may be revised toward even higher increases.

Consequences for the market and consumers

The first products expected to rise in price are:

  • gaming and workstation PCs with 32–64 GB of RAM;
  • laptops with fast SSDs starting from 1 TB;
  • smartphones and tablets with large amounts of internal storage.

Components for custom builds — especially DDR5 memory and NVMe SSDs — are already increasing in price faster than other categories. Retail prices could climb even higher than TrendForce predicts due to markups and limited warehouse stock.

In brief

TrendForce has updated its outlook: in the first quarter of 2026, PC DRAM prices are expected to rise by 105–110%, server and mobile memory by 88–93%, and enterprise SSDs by 53–58%. The average increase across the NAND market is projected at about 60%. The cause is a sharp demand spike in late 2025 and depleted OEM inventories. This represents a record quarterly jump, and buyers of PCs, laptops, and smartphones should prepare for noticeable price increases on devices with larger memory capacities in the coming months.