What the conflict with Iran means for Bitcoin: Oil at $118, gold at $5,388, and ETF outflows

At the beginning of March 2026, Bitcoin hit a weekly low, falling to about $65,633 amid a surge in oil prices and a broader flight from risk assets. Rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East has evolved from a local incident into a broader economic factor affecting global markets — including cryptocurrencies.

Why Bitcoin is falling but still outperforming stocks

On March 9, Bitcoin declined about 2.36%, trading in the $65,633–$66,000 range. That drop is smaller than the losses seen in major U.S. stock index futures. At one point, futures for the Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and S&P 500 were down more than 2–3%.

Asian markets saw even sharper declines, with South Korea’s KOSPI falling 8.1%.

Meanwhile, global commodities surged. Brent crude oil briefly reached $118.73 per barrel, the highest level since June 2022. At the same time, Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, jumped more than 2% to $5,388 per ounce. The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies, while yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds climbed to their highest level of the year.

Analysts at Tokenize Capital note that the situation has already moved beyond a purely military event and is now shaping into a broader economic shock. Markets are taking a defensive stance ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI inflation report, as higher energy prices could accelerate inflation — typically negative for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

ETF outflows and on-chain signals

Since November 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have seen nearly $6 billion in net outflows. Weekend data also showed continued negative inflows.

This indicates that institutional capital is leaving the market rather than waiting on the sidelines.

From a technical perspective, analysts identify $64,000 as the nearest support level. If that level breaks, the next potential target is around $61,000. On the upside, the closest resistance sits near $68,000.

Bitcoin is holding up better than expected

Despite the sharp decline in equities and rising volatility, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience.

Market veteran Ed Yardeni recently raised the probability of a U.S. stock market crash to 35%, up from 20%, citing the oil shock, a stronger dollar, and the risk of the conflict spreading to Saudi Arabia.

Yardeni argued that the U.S. economy and stock market are now caught between geopolitical pressure and deteriorating economic conditions. If the oil shock continues, the Federal Reserve may face a difficult dilemma between rising inflation and increasing unemployment.

Research from NYDIG also suggests that only about 25% of Bitcoin’s price movements correlate with stock markets. The remaining 75% are driven by crypto-specific factors, which may explain why BTC is holding up better than traditional risk assets.

What happens next

If the conflict remains localized and oil prices fail to stay above $100–110 per barrel, risk assets — including Bitcoin — could recover quickly.

However, if escalation continues and U.S. inflation accelerates due to energy costs, pressure on the crypto market could intensify. For now, the fact that Bitcoin remains above $65,000 is seen as a sign of relative strength.

In brief

Bitcoin dropped to a weekly low of $65,633 as oil prices surged to $118.73 and investors moved away from risk assets amid tensions involving Iran. Nearly $6 billion has flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since November 2025. Key technical levels are $64,000 support and $68,000 resistance. Despite the sell-off, BTC is outperforming stock indices — falling only about 2.36%, compared with 2–8% declines in global equities. If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, a rebound is possible; in a worse scenario, Bitcoin could test $61,000.