Analysts predict a sharp rise in PC prices in the first half of 2026

The year 2026 could become a serious challenge for anyone planning to buy or upgrade a computer. According to IDC forecasts, PC prices will rise by 15–20 percent, while shipments will fall by nearly 5 percent. The reason is a global memory and components crisis coinciding with the end of Windows 10 support and a boom in AI PCs. Major manufacturers are already warning customers about contract revisions.

A perfect storm for the market

IDC describes the situation as a perfect storm. Shortages of DRAM and NAND persist, production costs are rising, and demand is being driven by two key factors. First, millions of users will upgrade their PCs due to the end of Windows 10 support in October 2025. Second, AI features require much larger amounts of RAM, with at least 16 to 32 GB needed for comfortable use of Copilot Plus and similar technologies.

Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS have already notified partners that prices will increase and contracts will be reviewed. Custom-built PCs are expected to suffer the most, as enthusiast-grade components are rising in price faster than prebuilt systems.

PC shipments are projected to fall by 4.9 percent, and this is considered an optimistic scenario. If the memory shortage worsens, the decline could be deeper. Large vendors will have an advantage, as they can maintain more attractive value in the mass market, while custom builders will bear the full cost of the crisis.

AI PCs under pressure

The development of AI PCs is likely to slow down. On-device AI features consume large amounts of memory, which is in short supply. Manufacturers will struggle to offer powerful configurations at affordable prices, forcing either reduced RAM capacities or significantly higher prices.

Analysts believe that 2026 could surpass even the pandemic and crypto-mining crises in terms of market difficulty, periods when prices for certain components rose by 50 to 100 percent.

What buyers should do

If an upgrade is planned, it is better to do it in 2025 while stock is still available at older prices. In 2026, buyers should expect increases of at least 15 to 20 percent, especially for RAM and high-end configurations.

In brief

IDC forecasts a 15–20 percent rise in PC prices and a 4.9 percent drop in shipments in the first half of 2026 due to a memory shortage. The overlap with the end of Windows 10 support and the boom in AI PCs creates a perfect storm. Major brands such as Dell, HP, and Lenovo are warning about price revisions. Custom-built systems and AI PCs will be hit hardest. If a purchase is planned, it may be wise not to wait until 2026.