Trends in global tourism and Armenia's potential: Interview with Sérgio Guerreiro

Tourism remains one of the most resilient sectors of the global economy, showing an impressive recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite economic and geopolitical challenges such as rising inflation and regional conflicts, the industry continues to grow, opening up new opportunities for countries seeking to develop their tourism sectors. Sérgio Guerreiro, Chair of the Tourism Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), spoke with NEWS.am Tech about key trends in global tourism, the factors behind its resilience, and Armenia’s potential as a tourist destination.

Resilience of Tourism: Global Trends

The tourism industry demonstrates an exceptional ability to adapt to crises. After the pandemic, many countries — including Portugal — not only returned to pre-pandemic levels but surpassed them.

According to Guerreiro, the main factors supporting this resilience include:

1. Industry professionalism: The tourism sector is highly specialized and focused on delivering quality experiences. Companies and organizations in this field have learned to effectively manage challenges by offering unique products and services.
2. Desire to travel: The pandemic intensified people's urge to travel, explore new cultures, and discover unfamiliar places. Studies show that tourism has become a priority for many when it comes to discretionary spending.
3. Economic potential: Tourism promotes economic growth, job creation, and infrastructure development, making it attractive for investment.

However, geopolitical instability — such as the conflict in Ukraine — impacts certain regions like Eastern Europe, where recovery is slower. Nonetheless, the sector has learned to adapt to global uncertainty, finding ways to continue growing.

Armenia’s Potential as a Tourist Destination

Guerreiro believes Armenia holds significant potential for tourism development, which can be unlocked through its unique natural, cultural, and culinary resources.

Key areas for development include:

1. Historical and cultural heritage: Armenia has a rich history that can serve as a foundation for attracting tourists. Historical landmarks and cultural traditions create a unique tourism product.
2. Natural wealth and biodiversity: Scenic landscapes such as lakes and mountains offer opportunities for active and ecological tourism. Rural tourism development could also become a major focus.
3. Gastronomy: Armenian cuisine, with its authentic flavors and traditions, is a strong competitive advantage. Unique dishes and local products such as wine attract tourists seeking genuine experiences.

Challenges and Solutions

Despite its potential, Armenia faces several challenges, which Guerreiro identifies as:

• Lack of infrastructure: Developing tourism requires investment in transport, hotels, and other facilities. Forums like the one the expert attended help attract investors.
• Need for workforce training: Improving service quality requires education and training for tourism professionals.
• Promoting authenticity: It's important to avoid globalizing the tourism product and instead emphasize Armenia's uniqueness — its culture, cuisine, and traditions.

Solving these issues requires close cooperation between the public and private sectors. Joint priority-setting and strategic planning will help create a sustainable tourism development model.

The Role of Sustainable Development

Sustainable development is becoming an essential part of tourism strategy. According to Sérgio Guerreiro, this includes three key aspects:

1. Economic sustainability: Tourism projects must be profitable to support economic growth.
2. Environmental responsibility: Preserving nature and biodiversity, as well as regenerating the environment, are top priorities.
3. Social value: Tourism should contribute to the development of local communities, respect their traditions, and improve quality of life.

For Armenia, this means creating tourism products that highlight authenticity and preserve cultural and natural heritage. For example, developing gastronomic tourism with a focus on local products or creating routes that include rural communities can attract tourists and support the local economy.

Impact of Technology and Artificial Intelligence

Modern technologies, especially artificial intelligence (AI), open new opportunities for tourism. According to Guerreiro, AI can:

• Personalize experiences: By analyzing tourist preferences, AI helps offer customized routes and services.
• Improve access to information: Tourists can instantly get recommendations on what to see or do in the next few hours.
• Automate processes: From booking to managing tourism sites, AI increases business efficiency.

Other technologies — such as the Internet of Things (IoT), virtual reality (VR), and augmented reality (AR) — can also transform how tourism is experienced, creating new ways to engage with attractions. Armenia should invest in business digitalization and specialist training to use these technologies to improve its competitiveness.

Lessons from Portugal

Portugal, as a mature tourist destination, serves as an example of a successful strategy. According to Guerreiro, its key success factors include:

• Focus on authenticity: Culture, gastronomy, and interaction with local communities are essential elements of tourist satisfaction.
• Infrastructure investment: Collaboration between the state and the private sector helped build a modern tourism infrastructure.
• Sustainable development: Portugal integrated sustainability principles into its strategy, strengthening its market position.

Armenia can adopt this experience by focusing on the uniqueness of its cultural and natural assets and by developing partnerships between the government and businesses.

It is worth noting that Sérgio Guerreiro visited Armenia to participate in the HIF 2025 forum. He was one of the panelists in the discussion titled “Fostering Hospitality Ecosystem Development: Strategic Infrastructure, Public Funding & International Programmes.”